There have been reports of the coin market continues to grow as the economy is falling. One measure is the PCGS3000 index that is based on a sample of 3,000 coins. Looking at the graph (see the right side of the page), the trend (blue) line continues upward. In fact, there is no downward place on the line. A trend graph would give an indication that the market is very hot and trending upward. But is that the case for the entire market?
The PCGS3000 is supposed to be a representative sample of the coin market. But like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it is not a complete view of the market since there are other segments that have reacted differently. One area that is more sensitive to the movement of the market is the Generic Gold Index (right). This index looks at what many consider common date gold and gold bullion coins where the coins are worth their metal value plus a nominal numismatic premium. The graph shows a volatility that can be traced to the market value of gold.
Gold is a volatile market. When I thought that rare and proof gold would be a better choice, I found that the Mint State Rare Gold and Proof Gold indices seem to be affected by the price of gold. While there may be individual coins that perform better than others, the market itself seems to belie the trend of the PCGS3000 index.
The idea from this article came when a friend asked me they should buy if they wanted to invest using coins. My friend heard that the US Mint was having problems producing gold coins and wanted to know what to do. Since I am a collector and not an investor, I had to do some research.
Researching market trends is not easy. Online price guides do not provide the historical data to make an analysis. Gold dealers are quick to tout the investment in gold and how great of an investment option it is. But I was suspicious. After all, if even rare coins are affected by the gold market, maybe gold is not the best of investments.
I started to click on the links for the other graphs at the PCGS site and stumbled upon the Morgan and Peace Dollar Index (right). I have heard some dealers say that this market was moving, but I thought that was wishful thinking. But the graph shows that in the last year, the trend is upward. This was very interesting until I looked at the 10 year graph for Morgan and Peace Dollars.
My first impression was that the graph would overlay the trends in the economy with the exception of the downward trend during the technology bubble.
I was not sure what to tell my friend. I mentioned the Morgan and Peace Dollar market as a potential investment area. I also told the story of the GSA Morgan Dollars and their worth to collectors. I suggested high grade Morgan Dollars and later date, high grade Peace Dollars. I even discussed finding various die varieties that gets some collectors excited.
Although I was having fun clicking through vamworld.com, my friend was looking for something to invest in to either preserve a investment or to make money. I finally relented and suggested reading Profitable Coin Collecting by David Ganz. It seems to be the type of book that investors may find interesting.
While it is nice to see my collection is worth more than I purchased it, I am not collecting Morgan or Peace dollars because they are or will be worth more than when I purchased them.
Graphs courtesy of PCGS.