Jan 2, 2022 | bullion, news
We like to speculate on many things that will happen in the future. Sports bettors have been watching the bowl games to see how their prognostications will make money, and market prognosticators bet the winners and losers of companies.
Prognostication is not something that is pulled out of a hat. Past performance and the environment are some of the information used to make the decisions.
At the end of August, the Accredited Precious Metals Dealers (APMD) predicted that at year-end, gold would close at $1,897, silver $28, and platinum $1,153. The APMD is a professional organization of precious metals dealers with a mission to educate and promote market integrity. These are the people within the market and have the background to understand the nuances.
On the other end of the weekend’s prognostication were the oddsmakers who earn their living predicting the outcome of football games. For the Alabama vs. Cincinnatti Cotton Bowl game, the oddsmakers made Alabama a -13.5 point favorite. For those not aware of sports betting, that means the oddsmakers believe that Alabama would win by 13.5 or more points. If Alabama loses or wins by 13-points or less, you lose the bet.
The Cotton Bowl’s over-under was 57.5 points. If the gambler believes that the game’s combined score would be more than 57.5 points, you will bet the over.
For the Orange Bowl, Georgia was a -7.5 favorite over Michigan with an over-under of 46 points.
Who did better?
In the Cotton Bowl, Alabama beat Cincinnatti 27-6. Although Alabama beat the spread, only those who bet the under won money. The story was similar in the Orange Bowl where Georgia blasted Michigan 34-11, beating the spread and going under the predicted 46 point total.
How did the APMD do? As we check their results, the comparison also includes the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) consensus prediction is included to compare results. The LBMA is the operator of the London markets that set the worldwide price of precious metals. Using the prices at the close in the New York Metals Market on Friday as reported by Kitco:
2021 Precious Metal Predictions vs. Reality
| Medal |
August 31 Prediction |
December 31 Close |
Difference (Pct) |
LBMA Consensus |
| Gold |
$1,897.00 |
$1,815.20 |
-81.80 (-4.31%) |
$2,072.00 |
| Silver |
$28.00 |
$23.20 |
-4.80 (-17.14%) |
$32.00 |
| Platinum |
$1,153.00 |
$963.00 |
-190.00 (-16.47%) |
$1,205.00 |
The difference between the markets is that the gambling bookmakers make their living on being right about the odds, and precious metals dealers make money on their premiums on selling coins and bullion.
Bookmakers have to make the correct predictions daily. An incorrect prediction on a big game will cost the bookmakers millions of dollars, and too many bad odds predictions could bankrupt a sportsbook.
Bullion dealers can adjust the premiums as the metals rise and fall, and they have to promote their product and let the buyers come. Bullion inventory usually turns over faster than the changes in the market, limiting the price risks. As long as the dealer is selling within the spread of the spot price and the premium, their incentive to be correct in their metals predictions is reduced.
All investments are a gamble, and the difference amongst the markets is what stake the prognosticators have on the outcome. You would have made more money by betting on Alabama and Georgia to win their games than most precious metals predictions.
Georgia opens as a -2.5 favorite over Alabama for the National Championship in Indianapolis on January 10, 2022. The over/under is 51.5, according to Draftkings, and Sports Illustrated published a trends analysis for the betting line.
It’s your money. Bet wisely.
GO DAWGS!
And now the news…
December 26, 2021
The 'Le Catillon II' hoard was discovered in 2012 by two amateur metal detectorists who had spent decades combing a single field on the island of Jersey.
→ Read more at
dailymail.co.uk
December 29, 2021
European researchers determined which locations may have been mined for silver to produce Roman coinage.
→ Read more at
mining.com
December 30, 2021
COIN collectors can make a mint if they spot a piece with a double die error, with Lincoln cents selling for eye-watering price tags online. The US Mint has struck cents that feature 16th US President Abraham Lincoln since 1909.
→ Read more at
the-sun.com
December 31, 2021
The rare gold leopard coin, which was minted in 1344.
→ Read more at
livescience.com
December 31, 2021
A rare 17th century gold coin from the reign of King Sigismund III is set to fetch a whopping 1 million US dollars when it goes up for auction in New York next month.
→ Read more at
thefirstnews.com
Dec 28, 2021 | auction, coins, commentary, news, shows, US Mint
The last two years have been a wild ride. Anyone who predicted what would have happened should be picking lottery numbers. For the rest of us, the predictable (i.e., the U.S. Mint) became unpredictable. The positives had a lot of negatives and what used to be extraordinary is now ordinary.
Without further ado, here are the top five numismatic stories for 2021.
5. Return of the coins shows
It isn’t easy to have any retrospective of 2021 without acknowledging how COVID-19 has affected the industry. At the beginning of 2021, there were cancelations of shows and other events. As the vaccines became more available and the infection rates declined, the shows returned.
Smaller shows found hotels willing to lease larger rooms to allow the setup of a socially distance bourse. Like the World’s Fair of Money, Larger shows changed to provide for social distancing and limiting contact. Collectors that attended these shows called them a success. Still, the reports may be more emotional satisfaction after a year off.
Coins shows are adapting to an alleged new normal, and collectors are happy to get what they can. While it makes collectors happy, the looming threat of new variants may slow down the shows at the start of 2022.
4. The Positives and Negatives of the U.S. Mint
Ventris Gibson, Acting Director of the U.S. Mint (LinkedIn photograph)
Even with the COVID issues, the U.S. Mint could produce the coins required by law, including the 2021 Morgan and Peace Dollars. Unfortunately, selling these coins revealed collectors’ frustrations with the U.S. Mint.
The U.S. Mint’s online order processing system may work without product release. Still, a major product release causes the system to fail. The product release was a perfect storm of a limited supply and a high collector demand. The result exposed how PFSWeb, the U.S. Mint’s contractor, created a system that could not handle the rush.
The U.S. Mint became more communicative with the numismatic press. During this communication, it was clear that Director David Ryder wanted to talk more about the successes. Unfortunately, the failures of the ordering system overshadowed any success. Ryder resigned as Director effective October 1, 2021.
The e-commerce system at the U.S. Mint is broken and needs to be replaced. Unfortunately, the open communications from the U.S. Mint indicate that they are planning to install a bandaid to cover up the system’s problems. Unless the U.S. Mint and PFSWeb make major changes to their online order system, the issues will continue into 2022.
3. 2021 Morgan and Peace Dollars
Numismatists know that 2021 marked the end of the Morgan Dollar series and the introduction of the Peace Dollar. Morgan Dollars may be the most collected coin in U.S. numismatics. The Peace Dollar was the coin promoted by former ANA President Faran Zerbe with support from the ANA. In 1921, the U.S. Mint produced both coins. What better way to celebrate the centennial is by creating tributes to both coins.
The tribute idea was popular by collectors suggesting that it would be a high-demand product. But the U.S. Mint found a way to destroy the movement. In a series of missteps, the U.S. Mint allowed its lawyers to restrict their ability to do its job. As a result, the U.S. Mint could not purchase enough planchets to satisfy collector demand.
It is difficult to call the program a success given its problems. But the coins were a sellout, and they continue to do well on the secondary market. The U.S. Mint announced that the program will continue in 2022, and hopefully, it will go better than the 2021 releases.
2. Million Dollar Coins No Longer a Surprise
1804 Class I Original Draped Bust dollar, PCGS Proof-68 and the finest known of its kind, acquired for a client by GreatCollections for $7.68 million. (Photo credit: Professional Coin Grading Service.)
The numismatic market is very active, and the price increase of significant rarities results from the active market. Although the market favors United States coins, the collectors extend their collections to coins made elsewhere. Of the ten-million-dollar coins sold in 2021, four were not U.S. coins.
Here are the coins that sold for more than $1 million in 2021:
Million Dollar Coin Sales in 2021
| Sale Price |
Coin Sold |
Date Sold |
| $18,900,000 |
1933 Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle (King Farouk provenance) |
June 8, 2021 |
| $9,360,000 |
1787 Brasher Doubloon – EB on Wing (ex: Stickney-Ellsworth-Garrett-Partrick) |
January 21, 2021 |
| $8,400,000 |
1822 Half Eagle (ex: Pogue) |
March 25, 2021 |
| $7,680,000 |
1804 Bust Dollar – Class I (one of 15 known) |
August 18, 2021 |
| $5,280,000 |
1804 $10 Proof Eagle (Finest of Three known) |
January 20, 2021 |
| $4,750,000 |
1907 Saint-Gaudens Ultra High Relief Double Eagle |
April 6, 2021 |
| $2,640,000 |
1825 Russia Ruble Pattern with would-be Emperor Constantine |
April 6, 2021 |
| $2,280,000 |
1928 China Pattern Dollar featuring the warlord Zhang Zuolin |
April 6, 2021 |
| $2,280,000 |
1937 Edward VIII 5 Pounds Pattern (one of six known) |
March 26, 2021 |
| $2,160,000 |
1928 China Pattern “Mukden Tiger” Dollar (one of ten known) |
December 11, 2021 |
1. The Double Eagle That Flies Higher
Farouk-Fenton 1933 Saint-Gaudens $20 Double Eagle was sold by Sotheby’s for $18,872,250 in a June 2021 auction. (Picture Credit: PCGS)
Since that sale, several coins sold for more.
On June 8, 2021, Sotheby’s auctioned the Stuart Weitzman Collection, including rare Inverted Jenny Plate Block and the British Guiana One-Cent Black on Magenta stamps. The coin sold for a record $18,872,250.
It answers the question, “What is a coin worth?” What are you willing to pay for it?
Dec 26, 2021 | news
It has been a rough few years, so it is good to highlight a good story.
A news story from KXAS, the NBC-owned station in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, reported that a coin dealer opened a new storefront three years after being robbed.
According to the report, Christian Lyche was robbed of 75-percent of his inventory in April 2019. Although the police caught the robber, Lyche did not recover any merchandise or compensation.
Lyche said that the numismatic community helped him set up online, and he was back in business. After rebuilding his business, Lyche opened Dallas Gold and Gun last weekend. He reported having a good opening weekend.
Congratulations to Christian Lyche for recovering, following your dreams, and maintaining a positive presence in the hobby.
And now the news…
December 21, 2021
Rust Rare Coin owner Gaylen Rust, pictured in this July 2010 photo, pleaded guilty to wire fraud, securities fraud and money laundering in federal court on Monday. Matt Gillis, Deseret News SALT LAKE CITY — The second of three owners of a Utah rare coins business federally indicted in a Salt Lake City-based Ponzi scheme has pleaded guilty.
→ Read more at
deseret.com
December 22, 2021
Three years ago, Christian Lyche was at the beginning of his career and also rock bottom. He’d recently opened shop in Corinth, turning a passion for collecting coins into a thriving business. "I loved coins long before I bought and sold them, I collected them, traded them,” said Lyche.
→ Read more at
nbcdfw.com
December 22, 2021
Marine archaeologists diving off the coast of Caesarea have discovered a number of ancient artifacts in recent months, including some dating back to the third century, the Israel Antiquities Authority revealed on Wednesday.
→ Read more at
timesofisrael.com
December 23, 2021
Deep beneath the streets of London, locked in a vault behind a heavy swing door and iron gate, is the world's largest collection of rare coins. There are around 20,000 of them, from Roman denarii and ancient Greek decadrachms to British gold double sovereigns.
→ Read more at
news.sky.com
Dec 6, 2021 | coins, news
After a bit of a hiatus, the Coin Week podcast resumed with a discussion of Free Coin Day. Free Coin Day encourages dealers to give away one coin to every customer to celebrate coin collecting.
Free Coin Day was founded by Coin Week’s editor Charles Morgan and joined this year by Rob Oberth of Round Table Trading. Both are members of the ANA Board of Governors. They encourage those participating in Free Coin Day to use the hashtag #FreeCoinDay to help promote the venture.
While Free Coin Day is a good idea, it is preaching to the converted in many ways. It requires someone to be motivated to walk into a coin shop to participate. Unfortunately, there are fewer brick-and-mortar shops, and most dealers are either working shows only or selling online, and access to dealers is limited.
While Oberth and Morgan have the beginning of a good idea but it does not go far enough. New collectors want experiences, and their collections represent something about their experiences.
Other collecting industries learned this the hard way. During the market downturn of 2008, most industries retrenched and figured out a way to revive old hobbies. The comics industry was not as vibrant. The idea of changing the industry beyond the paper book was not something the publishers wanted to do because it was the lifeblood of the industry.
The publishers realized that paper-based products were on their way out. The industry diversified with ancillary products, including movies, modern stories, collectibles, and experiences. One of the attempts to expand their reach was to embrace the existing ComicCons. The publishers poured more money into the ComicCons and used the larger Cons to launch products.
During the podcast, Oberth and Morgan all but dismiss the ideas learned from the comics industry. Rather than trying to figure out a way to make coin collecting an experience, they are giving away low-end coins trying to entice distracted Millenials and GenXers into coin shops.
And now the news…
November 30, 2021
The simple coin design was quickly replaced, leaving only 40 or so surviving specimens today. Courtesy of Morton and Eden
→ Read more at
smithsonianmag.com
December 3, 2021
December 5, 2021
THE 1955 Lincoln obverse cent is one of the most unique coins in existence and you're very lucky if you happen to have one in your possession. Since 1909, the US Mint has struck cents that feature 16th US President Abraham Lincoln.
→ Read more at
the-sun.com
December 5, 2021
St Barbe Museum
→ Read more at
bbc.com
Nov 28, 2021 | coins, news
Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and all other names given to special holiday sale days are relics of the past. Times have changed. Black Friday is no longer the day that most retailers begin to show a profit for the year. And with broadband available in many homes, the significance of Cyber Monday has disappeared as quickly as it arrived.
What has not changed is the desire to find gifts at a reasonable price. You can find sales on manufactured goods that do not have a supply chain issue, but you cannot find sales on collectibles.
The collectibles market remains very active. If it is collected, then the prices are higher than expected. I was reminded of this by a friend who has been saving to buy his first Carson City Morgan Dollar. When he thought he had saved enough, the price of the coin he wanted was now 20-percent more expensive.
Although collector coins are going up in value, there are affordable coins that can be stocking stuffers. Over the next week, I will look into what could become a gift for the collector in your life.
And now the news…
November 24, 2021
Made of pure silver, the coin was minted during the second year of the Great Revolt. Eliyahu Yanai / City of David
→ Read more at
smithsonianmag.com
November 24, 2021
November 26, 2021
YOU might be surprised what your spare change could sell for online – and you would be quite fortunate to find a VDB penny. Typically, what makes a coin rare is either low mintage or a unique error – and in some cases both.
→ Read more at
the-sun.com
Nov 21, 2021 | coins, news
News and notes from this past week:
The U.S. Mint announced that they completed producing 2021 American Eagle bullion coins and will distribute the last of their inventory by next week. They are producing 2022 coins for distribution beginning on January 3, 2022.
The supply chain continues to plague the change market, especially in less populated areas of the country. Smaller towns, including in the distant suburbs in metropolitan areas, continue to report coin shortages. Additionally, NGC reports that they have run out of new scratch-resistant holders. New submissions will be encased in the older-style holders—no word as to when they expect to have more in stock.
The American Numismatic Association is soliciting themes for the 99th National Coin Week, April 17-23, 2022. Submission should focus on the artistry featured on numismatic objects and the artists. Submissions should be no more than eight words and easy to remember.
The winning theme will receive a 2022 American Eagle proof silver dollar. The submission deadline is TOMORROW, Monday, November 22. ANA members can submit their idea on the ANA website.
And now the news…
November 10, 2021
News, News, News An amateur treasure hunter out for a casual day of using his new metal detector in the Danish countryside uncovered a stash of 22 gold medallions inscribed with mystical symbols, the Danish government recently announced.
→ Read more at
kovels.com
November 17, 2021
Enlarge / Nuclear physicists used micro-XRF scanning to produce elemental maps for Roman denarii coins and their color overlays. K.V.
→ Read more at
arstechnica.com
November 18, 2021
The FINANCIAL — A study of gold coins from different moments of the Roman Empire has revealed the thriving economy at the time of minting, according to UKRI. To reach this conclusion, researchers brought three Roman coins to the Science and Technology Facilities Council’s ISIS Neutron and Muon Source for analysis.
→ Read more at
finchannel.com
Nov 14, 2021 | coins, news
2022 National Purple Heart Hall of Honor Commemorative Half-Dollar Reverse
I am looking forward to the National Purple Heart Hall of Honor commemorative. Of the designs introduced, it will be interesting to see the implementation of the half-dollar reverse. As a line-art drawing, it can capture the feeling of the impact of the effect of a soldier earning the Purple Heart. It triggers memories of my grandfather, who earned his Purple Heart on the battlefield in Italy during World War I.
The biggest news of the week is the U.S. Mint saying they will continue the Morgan and Peace dollar programs in 2022. Based on the email I received, collectors seem to be excited about the future of this program. I am still looking for a Peace dollar in its original government package. If anyone is selling, contact me, and let’s make a deal.
Under the news radar was the sale of the Hawaii Five-0 1913 Liberty Head Nickel. The coin once owned by COL E.H.R. Green featured on an episode of the original Hawaii Five-0 television series, sold for the 14th time. Stack’s Bowers brokered the coins, graded PF the 64+ by NGC, sold for $4 million in a private sale.
Although it is fair to ask, was this news under the radar, or has the sale of coins breaking the $10 million barrier making a mere $4 million sale seem pedestrian?
And now the news…
November 4, 2021
The hoard of gold. Courtesy Norfolk Castle Museum
→ Read more at
news.artnet.com
November 5, 2021
An unnamed treasure hunter discovered the majority of the coins and gold objects between 2014 and 2020. British Museum
→ Read more at
smithsonianmag.com
November 9, 2021
After acquiring more than 2,800 rare Islamic silver coins earlier this year, Louvre Abu Dhabi is preparing to unveil the objects as part of a two-year project. Photo: DCT Abu Dhabi
→ Read more at
thenationalnews.com
November 12, 2021
Minted in Canterbury between 1493 and 1499, the silver half groat dates to the middle of Henry VII's reign, when a rebellion led by pretender Perkin Warbeck threatened to unseat the nascent Tudor dynasty.
→ Read more at
smithsonianmag.com
November 14, 2021
RARE coins can sell online for a pretty penny, especially full collections. A set of 13 Morgan Silver Dollar coins sold for more than $3,000 earlier this month.
→ Read more at
the-sun.com
Nov 7, 2021 | news, technology
A news item popped up that announced a dealer is selling Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT) for 13 rare ancient coins. Following the news, collectors ask if NFTs should be part of numismatics.
To answer the question, we must define the NFT. An NFT is a piece of data created using the complex math of cryptography to make it unique to tie it directly to the owner and the item. It is non-fungible because it represents a one-to-one relationship between the owner and the asset. An asset is fungible because it is interchangeable. A coin can be a fungible asset.
A token is an object that represents something else. In numismatics, a token represents money. The NFT is a piece of data that represents the owner and its tie to the asset.
Are you confused? So is most of the market that has run face-first into this new allegedly fantastical concept of owning a piece of something.
But is it an NFT or cryptocurrency numismatics?
According to Merriam-Webster, numismatics is “the study or collection of coins, tokens, and paper money and sometimes related objects (such as medals).”
First, NFTs are not numismatics. NFTs are a deed of ownership. Deeds are not numismatics.
Cryptocurrency may be considered a related object by definition, but does it represent money or currency in any form?
Cryptocurrency is an asset. The asset is assigned a value based on market forces. Are those assets numismatics? No! Cryptocurrency is an asset that does not represent anything. It is a set of bits and bytes created using complicated math.
The creators of cryptocurrency use names similar to physical assets to influence a market. For example, crypto-mining is a series of calculations to find large prime numbers. Searching for large prime numbers is something researchers have been calculating since the discovery of computers. In college, I worked on a project that calculated the largest prime number held at the time.
Today, someone decided to sell the idea of this complex math to calculate a series of prime numbers within constraints. Cryptocurrency is buying the number stored in something called a digital wallet. Owners of these numbers can trade them the same way you can trade stock or your car to a dealer.
Cryptocurrency is not legal tender. A governing authority does not authorize it. It is also not representative of anything except mathematics.
There is nothing in the definition of the trade of numbers to make it part of numismatics.
And now the news…
November 4, 2021
A group of the gold coins discovered in west Norfolk. Photograph: British Museum/PA
→ Read more at
artnews.com
November 5, 2021
Licinius I Aureus as NFT Art on OpenSea A Selection of 13 Rare ancient coins has been listed on OpenSea by DFGrotjohann.
→ Read more at
einnews.com
Oct 31, 2021 | coins, foreign, news, US Mint
Today marks the 16th Anniversary of the Coin Collectors Blog. When I started this blog, I did not know if I had enough to write about. But numismatics has had many twists and turns over the years to keep the hobby interesting. As long as there is something to write about and you are willing to read it, I will keep going. Here’s to the last 16 years and more fun in the future. Thank you for being a loyal reader!
Collectors are reporting that they received their orders of 2021 Morgan and Peace Dollars. Deliveries have come in waves where some have received multiple packages over two weeks.
A few collectors have noticed differences in the finish between different coins. A local collector showed me the difference between a Morgan Dollar with the CC privy mark and a 2021-S coin. The coin struck in San Francisco had a cloudier look. The Philadelphia Mint struck the Morgan Dollars with the privy marks.
A Canadian friend reported receiving colored Bluenose 10-cent coins in change. There is a general consensus that Canadians love the coins. One story included a cashier who was excited to open a roll of the new coins and took joy in giving them out.
Someone I know who is a member of the U.S. military had his post changed to the Pacific. As part of his tour, he went to Australia, where he discovered the alphabet coins. The Royal Australian Mint created 26 new designs with reverses featuring something Australian for each letter of the alphabet. The program, dubbed The Great Australian Coin Hunt 2, follows the 2019 program.
He was so impressed with the coins that He mailed a set of the 2019 and 2021 coins home for his children. When I told him that the Royal Mint released a similar set in the U.K., he said he might try for a tour in the North Atlantic to pick up a set.
There are a lot of interesting world coins to explore. Collectors may want to branch outside the U.S. and start a new collection.
And now the news…
October 26, 2021
A family in Michigan found an old ammunition round in there house that was filled with coins and bills decades ago. MSP First District A Michigan family made a bombshell discovery this weekend when they discovered a non-live WWI-era ammunition round was filled with treasure.
→ Read more at
nypost.com
October 30, 2021
0:00 0:03:24 A rare piece of metal money made in the 1600s in the New England area of the U.S. could be sold for $300,000.
→ Read more at
learningenglish.voanews.com
October 30, 2021
Prisoners at historic Port Arthur were not allowed to carry money. So how did a pile of silver shillings worth about a week's salary for one of the penal colony's overseers end up buried beneath the convicts' workshop?
→ Read more at
abc.net.au
October 30, 2021
More than 6,000 silver coins from the late Middle Ages were discovered during a renovation project on a farm in the village of Rainbach, Upper Austria. The silver coins, which were handed over to the OÖ Lande-Kultur GmbH museum in Upper Austria, also known as Linz Schlossmuseum, “were wrapped in fabric and kept in a clay lidded pot,” the museum said.
→ Read more at
klewtv.com
Oct 19, 2021 | coins, news, security
One of the reasons for the delay with the Weekly World Numismatic News is that I have been looking into a report of worldwide e-commerce issues under the radar.
After ordering a box of flips and other storage products from a small company, a representative called to say that the transaction did not go through. According to the representative, overseas attackers are trying to hack shopping cart sites to steal merchandise and credit card information. Rather than attacking the entire site, the hackers are targeting individual shops. They are looking for sites that are not configured correctly.
During the telephone call, the representative said they turned off credit card verification and the system “throws the credit card away.” I know this vendor, but I am still not comfortable.
E-commerce is supposed to make purchasing goods and services more accessible. But when hackers are driving vendors to verify credit cards by telephone, it is not making e-commerce easy. Thankfully, I received an announcement for local shows. Maybe it’s time to spend money there.
By the way, a source told me that the Baltimore Convention Centre would be open when the Whitman Expo is scheduled in November.
And now the news…
October 8, 2021
Subscribe now! EUREKA — Walker Hilbert sat on the ground one recent Saturday, next to a small mound of dirt. He waved a wand above the soil, and the device chirped encouragingly.
→ Read more at
stltoday.com
October 14, 2021
King County sheriff warns of counterfeit bills FALL CITY, Wash. — A Fall City grocery store fell victim to a man using a counterfeit $100 bill Tuesday, according to the King County Sheriff’s Office.
→ Read more at
kiro7.com
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