Cook Island thermometer coins

Anders Celsius

Anders Celsius

Cook Islands will be issuing a coin with an embedded thermometer to commemorate the 270th anniversary of the death of Anders Celsius. While his name does sound familiar, the results of his work is known in most of the world except for the daily lives of most Americans.

Celsius was a Swedish physicist, mathematician and a professor of astronomy at Uppsala University. As one of Sweden’s premier scientists of his day, Celsius traveled extensively to research ways to measure degrees from the poles in order to improve mapping and navigation. He believed that by studying the stars we could learn more about the composition of the earth and its origins, something we are still doing today.

The research he is most known for was as the first scientist to experiment with temperature in order to define a definitive scale to be used by all scientists as the basis for their experiments. In 1742, Celsius published the paper Observations of two persistent degrees on a thermometer where he defined 100 as the freezing point of water and 0 as its boiling point with a scale of units in between. He called his scale “centigrade” derived from the Latin for “hundred steps.”

Independently, physicist Jean-Pierre Christin of France developed a similar scale with 0 as the freezing point of water and 100 as its boiling point. In 1743, Christin commissioned the building of the “Thermometer of Lyon,” a mercury thermometer based on his research.

Celsius died in 1744 at the age of 42 from tuberculosis. A year after his death, colleague Carolus Linneaus, a botanist interested in the effects of temperature on growing plants, reversed Celsius’ scale and improved on the design for the thermometer. In a paper published in 1745, Linneaus first used the Celsius to describe the temperature scale. He later convinced the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences to change the name of the scale to Celsius in memory of his late colleague.

To honor Celsius, the Cook Islands hired Coin Invest Trust of Balzers, Liechtenstein to design and strike a coin to honor Andres Celsius. The coin with a 5 Dollar face value will 50mm in diameter and proof struck using one troy ounce of .925 silver. Mintage will be limited to 1744 pieces.

The coin’s unique reverse design will include a thermometer that will be integrated around the center of the coin that will feature the portrait of Anders Celsius. Based on the images, the thermometer looks like it will be based on the same technology as those used in temperature strips. The area where the portrait will be features a little degree mark before the C in Celsius, the date 1744-2014, and a small depiction of a thermometer.

Since Cook Islands are under the sovereignty of New Zealand and New Zealand is a member of the Commonwealth Realm, Queen Elizabeth II is the legal head of state and appears on the obverse of the coin. The portrait is by British sculptor Ian Rank-Broadley whose work appears on all coins of the Commonwealth Realm.

No announcement has been made as to when it will be available and the purchase price.

Given my resistance to gimmicks on coins (with my own admitted hypocrisy), there is still something compelling about the proposed design for this non-circulating legal tender (NCLT) coin. I will wait to see how much the coin will cost before making a commitment one way or the other.

Image of Anders Celsius from Wikimedia Commons
Coin images courtesy of Coin Invest Trust

Baseball gold is called out

2014 National Baseball Hall of Fame Commemorative Proof $5 gold coin obverse

2014 National Baseball Hall of Fame Commemorative Proof $5 gold coin obverse

The U.S. Mint reports that the $5 gold National Baseball Hall of Fame Commemorative Coin has sold out. It may be the fastest sell out of any gold commemorative coin in the modern commemorative era lasting only through the first weekend.

It has been speculated that the U.S. Mint will strike more coins than the law (Public Law 108–291 [PDF]) allows on order from the Secretary of the Treasury. No official decision has been announced by either the U.S. Mint or the Department of the Treasury. However, it is questioned whether it is legal for the Secretary to make this decision unilaterally or requires an act of congress. There seems to be evidence that someone had previously approved an increase for the 2005 Marine Corps Commemorative dollar, but there is no authoritative source for proof.

Collectors who have contacted me are not happy with the U.S. Mint. Many believe that the high limit (50 coins per “household”) was too high. When I posted images of the graded baseball coins, several commented that they felt that dealers “abused” their access to the immediate supply of coins that were available in the U.S. Mint booth at the Whitman Baltimore Expo that many collectors did not have a fair chance.

None of my correspondents would bemoan a dealer’s ability to make money on the secondary market. But to do so by taking advantage of the U.S. Mint’s inability to manage its market as the lone producer of U.S. commemorative coins was considered excessive by many. Although I sympathized with their point of view since I could not purchase one for my collection, I questioned whether the U.S. Mint has an obligation to just sell the coins or satisfy market forces. But as many pointed out, the U.S. Mint is a government agency and has a responsibility to the people of the United States and not just the corporations.

While at the Whitman show I spoke with one of the U.S. Mint employees who said that they should have limited the number of coins someone can purchase at one time. Although they did enforce lower limits on the supply of coins sold on Saturday, the damage had been done leaving collectors to scramble to buy the coins on the secondary market or order them online. Those of us who order the coins from the U.S. Mint online catalog will have to wait until June 21, according to the notice sent to me. However, the website is saying that the proof dollar is backordered until July 7 while the clad proof half-dollar is will be available on April 10.

Cassie McFarland holds up Baseball Hall of Fame Commemorative Dollar with her design

Cassie McFarland holds up Baseball Hall of Fame Commemorative Dollar with her design

Like many of my correspondents, it is difficult to believe that anyone at the U.S. Mint would be afraid that this commemorative would not sell. A simple search using your favorite search engine would have shown that the coverage of the striking of the first curved coin in U.S. Mint history was seen world wide. Even the image of Cassie McFarland, the artist whose design was selected for the obverse of the coin, holding one of the first strikes in her gloved hand was reproduced on news outlets throughout the world. You cannot buy that kind of publicity.

We are talking about baseball, America’s pastime. America’s game. Regardless of the accepted story of its founding, it is generally accepted that Major League Baseball was founded in 1869 making it the oldest organized league in North America. Not only was the coin released just before Opening Day for 2014, but the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Major League Baseball have been promoting this coin since the bill was signed.

To even hint that this was going to be a situation like the failure of the 2013 Girl Scout Commemorative would be very short sighted and foolish.

Maybe the U.S. Mint should review its sales processes than chase after pattern coins.

In the mean time, the U.S. Mint published a B-Roll for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Commemorative.

Coin image and B-Roll footage courtesy of the U.S. Mint.
Image of Cassie McFarland courtesy of the San Francisco Examiner.

Weekend of FUN

Going to a coin show in another area of the country is an education on seeing how others do the shows and meeting dealers who do not travel to your area. For me, attending the FUN Convention in Orlando was this type of experience. Yes, there were the usual big name, high volume, and high-end dealers present as they are at any show, but there are other dealers whom I have never met before.

Saturday was spent in three parts. When I arrived at the convention center, I went directly to the exhibits area. As a wannabe exhibitor with two (what I think are) good ideas, I wanted to see how others present their ideas. For the most part, I was a little disappointed in the exhibits. Many were mundane and typical. There were only a few exhibits that really stood out.

This Historically Significant 2-cent Piece by Tom Ulram of PAN

This Historically Significant 2-cent Piece by Tom Ulram of PAN

One of my favorites was a display on the two-cents coins that I found out was put together by Tom Uram, President of the Pennsylvania Association of Numismatists. What made the exhibit interesting is that rather than a flat display, he dressed it up using story boards on a backing that was raised from the bottom of the case, and colorful. It looks like Tom understood that the short-attention-span nature of somebody looking at numismatic material would be more attracted to and attractive presentation.

"Penny Potpourri" by Charmy Harker won Best in Class, Show, and People's Choice

“Penny Potpourri” by Charmy Harker won Best in Class, Show, and People’s Choice

The other exhibit that was clearly about the others was Charmy Harker’s “Penny Potpourri.” Charmy reprised the exhibit from her near sweep at the 2013 World’s Fair of Money to sweep the awards at FUN including Best in Show and People’s Choice. If you have not seen this exhibit, it chronicles the various items made from the little copper one-cent coin. From small tools, decorative items, to dollhouse items, it is amazing what Charmy found. After all, she is known as “The Penny Lady” so it would be natural for her to put this type of exhibit together.

The second part of my day was schmoozing. There is nothing like meeting numismatists of all type on a bourse floor and just talk with them. I spoke with people I know, dealers I did not know until I sat at their table, and with visitors looking at various items wanting more information. I had the most fun at the American Numismatic Association traveling exhibit explaining the history behind the various items of currency that were on display.

Speaking of the ANA traveling exhibit, I was a little disappointed in the presentation of what was exhibited. Aside from not having the currency labeled with information, the case with the errors had just coins placed in the case without description or context. Many of the bland collector exhibits were done better than what the ANA presented.

FUN organizers understand that the idea of having a how is to have fun (pun intended). One exhibit area that I have only seen at FUN is the artists’ area. The artists’ area was in the back of the hall off the center aisle where tables were set in a square that hand artists making jewelry and art from coins. There were a number of artists making modern Hobo Nickels, a bead artist who used coins as part of the beading work, and someone who made large rings with carved coins.

A modern Buffalo Nickel artist carves coins at the FUN Show

A modern Buffalo Nickel artist carves coins at the FUN Show

The rings from another artists features designs using coins (see top row)

The rings from another artists features designs using coins (see top row)

Another fun area was the panning for gold. On the other side of the hall was a large booth set up with troughs that had mud and tiny gold nuggets. It was fun to walk up and watch the kids swirl the pan and find a tiny gold nugget. I do not know how much gold was in that water, but it was a lot of fun giving it a try. No, I did not find a gold nugget!

Of the large shows I have attended, FUN has had the most diverse attendance. There seemed to be more families, women, and minorities than even at the World’s Fair of Money. Another pleasant surprise was the number of women taking the lead with the young numismatists around the bourse floor and many of those YNs being girls. There were also quite a few Hispanic collectors with their YNs buzzing around the floor. Since I do not speak Spanish I could tell they were enjoying themselves just be observing their body language.

Diversity is good in both the hobby and life. No single group has the answers and attracting people with diverse backgrounds and perspectives is good for everyone. I do not know if the organizers of FUN advertise the show in minority communities or in areas that would attract diverse interests, but they should share what they do with the rest of the numismatic community since it is working.

As for my purchases, I was looking for a few silver bullion coins. Of the ones on my personal want list I was able to pick up the 2013 25th Anniversary Canadian Silver Maple Leaf and the 2014 Chinese Panda. I did not find the 2013 all-silver Britannia and I forgot about the 2013 and 2014 Australian Silver Koala. Since I already own the 2013 American Silver Eagle Proof, I should be almost caught up with my silver collection.

In my attempt to find something that I can say “oh… neat,” I did find three items that category. First, to add to my New York City collection is a Type 2 or “Large Y” subway token without the large “Y” punched. This token would have been used from 1970, when the fare was 30-cents, through 1980 for a 50-cents fare. I have seen many mis-punched tokens, but this is the first I have seen without the “Y.”

New York City Type 2 Subway Token error. It's missing the punched out "Y"

New York City Type 2 Subway Token error. It’s missing the punched out “Y”

My next “oh… neat” item is a Dad’s root beer bottle cap but with a 1953-D Lincoln cent wedged inside the cap. I do not know if this was done by Dad’s or someone else, but the folding of the cap around the coin looks too perfect to have been done manually. Even if it was done by someone as a good luck piece, it was very interesting.

The bottle cap of a Dad's Root Beer bottle. A 1953-D Lincoln cent is embedded in the reverse!

The bottle cap of a Dad’s Root Beer bottle. A 1953-D Lincoln cent is embedded in the reverse!

A 1953-D Lincoln Cent is "trapped" inside this Dad's Root beer bottle cap

A 1953-D Lincoln Cent is “trapped” inside this Dad’s Root beer bottle cap

Finally, I found a 1940’s era oil rationing coupon book. Obviously issued during the war, the coupon book limited the holder to up to $25 of home heating oil from the Service Oil Company of Hibbing, Minnesota. Hibbing is in what can be described as northeast Minnesota where it is not exactly warm. As I type this, the Weather Channel is reporting that the temperature in Hibbing a 1F! What makes this coupon book unusual is that it is unused with all the coupons attached from frigid norther Minnesota. It has survived over 60 years in nearly pristine condition. Now that is “oh… neat!”

A never used home heating oil rationing coupon book from the World War II era.

A never used home heating oil rationing coupon book from the World War II era.


Back cover of an unused home heating oil coupon book. It was printed for but never issued by Service Oil Company of Hibbing, MN

Back cover of an unused home heating oil coupon book. It was printed for but never issued by Service Oil Company of Hibbing, MN

If you have not been to FUN you should try to go. At least take the family. They can go to a theme park while you hit the bourse floor!

Photo Album

All images can be found here on Photobucket

Counting Down the Top 10: #5 How do you like your frosting?

The collecting public has been enamored with the American Silver Eagle reverse proof. By making the fields look matte and the effigy of Adolph A. Weinman’s Walking Liberty design in a stunning mirror finish, the coin has become a favorite with collectors. Prior to this year, the U.S. Mint produced the American Silver Eagle for the 2006 20th Anniversary Silver Eagle set, 2011 25th Anniversary Silver Eagle set, and the 2012 75th Anniversary of the San Francisco Mint set.

This year, the reverse proof was included in the “2013 American Eagle West Point Two-Coin Set.” The coins were struck as the U.S. Mint branch facility in West Point, New York. The coins feature the “W” mintmark.

Included with the reverse proof coins was a coin that the U.S. Mint called “enhanced uncirculated.” While it looks like a proof coin, the enhanced portion are the selective frosting of elements. Introduced earlier this year, the new laser frosting technique allows the U.S. Mint to selectively apply the frosting texture to areas of the dies in a matter that leaves fine details of the coins. For the enhanced American Silver Eagles, the selective frosting leaves the folds of Miss Liberty’s skirt mirrored and is used to show off the flag she is holding. Weinman’s Walking Liberty image is one of the best designs every to appear on a U.S. coin. Enhancing it in this manner just makes it pop in a way Weinman could never imagine.

In a recent conversation with Acting Mint Director Richard Peterson, he said that the U.S. Mint’s most successful coin launch in recent history was the American Buffalo reverse proof coin. The coin was first offered for sale at the World’s Fair of Money this past August, the U.S. Mint did not have enough inventory in order to meet the demand.

The 24 karat gold coin that was first issued in 2006 featuring the 1913 Type 1 Buffalo Nickel, was issued to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the design by James Earle Fraser. Fraser, who had a reputation as being a finicky artist, would likely be happy to see his Type 1 Buffalo nickel design as a gold reverse proof coin. Black Diamond never looked so good!

Although it has not been announced, Peterson suggested that the Kennedy half dollar may see an enhancement. Since 2014 will be the 50th anniversary of the Kennedy Half Dollar, expect the U.S. Mint to do something for this anniversary. It would not be a surprise to see a set with reverse proof and enhanced uncirculated coins.

Using the enhanced uncirculated treatment, if a 2014-S coin paid tribute to the Bicentennial reverse, can you imagine how good that would look?

Using the enhanced uncirculated treatment, if a 2014-S coin paid tribute to the Bicentennial reverse, can you imagine how good that would look?

Counting Down the Top 10: #7 Dollars and What Sense

Two discussions that transcended numismatics is what to do about the one dollar coin and common one-cent coin. Both coins cause different problems depending on who is doing the arguing. I find it amazing that the logic that is used to support the argument is not used consistently.

Dollar coins have been around since the beginning of the republic. In fact, the coin that currently holds the record for being the most expensive coin sold at auction is a 1794 Flowing Hair dollar. The coin is reported to be amongst the first dollar coins minted at the newly created Mint was bought by Legend Numismatics for more than $10 million. Laura Sperber, one of the principals of Legend Numismatics, was quoted as saying that she was prepared to bid higher for the coin.

If that is not enough to show how important the dollar coin has been in our history, there is always the 1804 Bust dollar, also known as “The King of Coins.” The U.S. Mint ceased to strike dollar coins in 1804 because of hoarding when the price of silver rose. The dollars that were struck in 1804 were struck using dies dated 1803 and are indistinguishable from the coins struck in 1803. The U.S. Mint continued to strike “minor coinage” to encourage circulation.

In 1834, eight dollar coins were struck with the 1804 date to include in a special set created as a gift for the King of Siam (the area known today as Thailand). One coin was included in the set, one was retained by the U.S. Mint for its collection that is now part of the National Numismatic Collection at the Smithsonian National Museum of American History, and the six others were kept as souvenirs by Mint officials and eventually landed in private collections. Between 1858 and 1860 seven more specimens were surreptitiously by U.S. Mint employee Theodore Eckfelt. It is alleged that Eckfelt created 15 coins. Six are in private collection, one is now part of the National Numismatic Collection and the others were reported to be destroyed when seized by the government.

The Coinage Act of 1873, known as “The Crime of ’73,” ended the free coining of silver and put the United States strictly on the gold standard until the western states where silver was being mined became upset. Two weeks later, congress passed the Bland-Allison Act to required the Department of the Treasury to buy the excess silver and use it to strike the Morgan Dollar. Morgan dollars, especially those struck at the branch mint in Carson City, Nevada are popular with collectors because of their ties to the days of the old west. Collectors can find quite a few nice examples of Morgan and the Peace dollars that were struck from 1921 through 1938 because many did not circulate. These coins were held as backing to silver certificates in circulation and did not get released to the general public until the GSA Hoard sales that begin in the 1960s.

Such a colorful history also has a downside that is used as fodder against the dollar. After ending the production of the Peace dollar in 1938, no dollars were struck until 1964 when the U.S. Mint struck 316,076 1964-D Peace dollars in May 1965. The coins were never put into circulation and the entire population of 1964-D Peace dollar were allegedly destroyed. There have been reports that some Peace dollars were struck using base metals (copper-nickel clad) as experimental pieces in 1970 in anticipation of the approval of the Eisenhower dollar. The same reports also presume these coins have been destroyed.

The Eisenhower dollar was not well received because of its size. The 38mm coin was seen as too big for modern commerce and with the exception of dollars struck with the special bicentennial reverse in 1975 and 1976, most coins did not circulate.

The Susan B. Anthony dollar coin was introduced in 1979 with much fanfare for being the first coin to honor a woman. The coin was a failure because it was confused with a quarter

The Susan B. Anthony dollar coin was introduced in 1979 with much fanfare for being the first coin to honor a woman. The coin was a failure because it was confused with a quarter

To try to improve circulation someone came up with the idea of the small dollar as part of an attempt to honor suffragette Susan B. Anthony. The copper-nickel coin was very close in size to the Washington quarter, had reeded edges like the Washington quarter, and on a simple glance was consistently confused with the Washington quarter. I even have heard coin collectors use the fiasco of the Susie B.’s as a reason not to pursue the dollar coin.

Since the introduction of the Sacagawea dollar in 2000, the dollar coin’s size has remained the same but with the addition of manganese has a golden color to be visually different from other coins. For the visually impaired, the reeding was removed from the edges. Today, the Presidential $1 coins and the Native American $1 Coins have edge lettering that keeps it tactically different from the quarter dollar. However, people continue to bring up the Susan B. Anthony dollar as a reason not to use dollar coins.

Historically, dollar coins has been more popular in the western regions of the United States where the east prefers paper. Financial centers and big city government prefers paper for its alleged ease of handling. When circulated side-by-side, the public tends to choose paper over coin.

When we look around the world for examples of how to handle this situation, we find that the United States is the only country where the unit currency is available in both paper and coin. Other countries did not give people a choice. Rather, their governments made a decision based on overall economic benefits of using a coin with a predicted 30-year lifespan over paper currency that can last 18-24 months in circulation. Instead of the argument being of practical economics where every other country and the European Union have put on their proverbial long pants and made a decision that is in their best economic interest, factions in the United States comes up with mind boggling arguments of alleging that taking the paper dollar away is akin to taking away our freedom.

Obverse of the 2013-S Lincoln proof cent. Lincoln's portrait, designed by Victor D. Brenner in 1909,  is the longest running design of any United States coin.

Obverse of the 2013-S Lincoln proof cent. Lincoln’s portrait, designed by Victor D. Brenner in 1909, is the longest running design of any United States coin.

Then why is that not an argument that can be used to figure out what the do about the one cent coin? Are we not giving up the same freedoms by forcing those who pay for good and services using cash to sacrifice their ability to pay what is due and not over pay?

The United States has a history of using its currency to boost the economic status of its citizens, aside from the various silver laws and the laws that eventually took the United States off the gold and silver standards, the creation of the half-cent was made because of the economic status of its citizens. Following Alexander Hamilton’s Treasury Secretrary’s report to congress “On the Establishment of a Mint,” Secretary of State Thomas Jefferson had another idea. Jefferson thought it would be better to tie subsidiary coins tied to the actual usage of the 8 reales coin. At the time, rather than worry about subsidiary coinage, people would cut the coin into pieces. A milled dollar cut in half was a half-dollar. That half-dollar cut in half was a quarter-dollar and the quarter-dollar cut in half was called a bit.

The bit was the basic unit of commerce since prices were based on the bit. Of course this was not a perfect solution. It was difficult to cut the quarter-dollars in half with great consistency which created problems when the bit was too small, called a short bit. Sometimes, short bits were supplemented with English pennies that were allowed to circulate in the colonies.

As an aside, this is where the nickname “two bits” for a quarter came from.

Jefferson felt that in order to convert the people from bit economy to a decimal economy, the half-cent was necessary to have 12½ cents be used instead of a bit without causing problems during conversion from allowing foreign currency to circulate as legal tender until the new Mint can produce enough coinage for commerce.

The half-cent would come into focus in the 1850s when the cost to produce the United State’s copper coins was nearly double their face value. In 1856, the Mint produced the first of the small cents, the Flying Eagle small cent, and produced 700 samples to convince congress to change to the small cent. As part of the discussion was the elimination of foreign currency from circulation making the U.S. Mint the sole supplier of coins.

There is no record of outcry from the public on the elimination of the half-cent. Its elimination came four years after the Coinage Act of 1853 that created the one-dollar and double eagle gold coins in response to the discovery of gold in North Carolina, Georgia, and California. The gold rush caused a prosperity and inflation that not only made the half-cent irrelevant but not something on the public’s mint. In that light, the Mint and congress felt that it just outlived its usefulness and would not be necessary with the elimination of foreign currency from circulation.

More controversy was generated in 1857 over the demonetizing foreign coins in the United States than the elimination of the half-cent. While the half-cent continued to circulate, it was estimated that one-third of the coins being circulated were foreign, primarily reales from Mexico. Redemption programs did not go smoothly, but in the end foreign coins were taken out of the market and the American people adapted and it could be said we prospered as a nation.

Like the 1850s, the last seven years have found that the cost of the copper used to make the one-cent coin has increased to more than the coin’s value. Combined with the labor and manufacturing costs, it costs the U.S. Mint between 1.6 and 1.8 cents for each copper-coated zinc cent struck. Although people argue that the cent is not needed and is barely useful, the U.S. Mint reports that 65-percent of its production are for one-cent coins that are ordered by the Federal Reserve to be circulated in commerce.

Eliminating the cent has caused controversy from those concerned with the economic welfare of the less fortunate. Many are using the same arguments that Jefferson made in 1791 to create the half-cent in order to keep the one-cent coin in circulation while others point to what other countries are doing. Canada is currently the country with the largest economy to eliminate its lowest denomination coin. Proponents of eliminating the cent point to Canada’s rocky success (withdrawal of the cent had been delayed twice) as an example of how the United States can handle the situation.

Canadian 1-dollar and 2-dollar coins. The 1-dollar coin is called a Loonie because its reverse depicts a common loon. “Toonie” is a play on the Loonie nickname.

Canadian 1-dollar and 2-dollar coins. The 1-dollar coin is called a Loonie because its reverse depicts a common loon. “Toonie” is a play on the Loonie nickname.

Canada also does not circulate paper currency smaller than their 5-dollar banknote. Rather than paper (or polymer as they are converting away from rag-bond paper), Canada circulates a one-dollar (Loonie) and two-dollar (Toonie) that is regularly used in commerce. The Bank of Canada is also considering eliminating their 5-dollar note in favor of a 5-dollar coin that would be produced by the Royal Canadian Mint for circulation.

Suggesting that if the United States follows Canada’s lead in the elimination of the cent, should the United States follow Canada’s lead and eliminate the one- and two-dollar Federal Reserve Notes in favor of one- and two-dollar coins?

This debate will continue until someone decides to act like an adult and make a definitive policy decision—especially when the Fed publishes a “working paper” that cherry picks facts to support a specific viewpoint.

Image of the Susan B. Anthony dollar and Lincoln cent courtesy of the U.S. Mint.
Image of the Canadian Loonie and Toonie courtesy of Noticias Montreal.

Can you really invest in coins?

I always welcome email from readers and the curious but I received an email with an interesting question. My correspondent had become interested coin collecting as an investment and wanted to know if I knew where to find out how much the gold coins would be worth in 10 or 20 years. Channeling my inner Edward Moore (from his play The Gamester) or Dr. McCoy for the Star Trek fans, I replied “If anyone knew the answer to that question they would rich beyond the dreams of avarice!”

This is not the first time someone asked me what I thought would be the price of rare or gold coins in the future. It is also a question that I do not like to answer since I am a collector and not an investor.

Markets are difficult to predict. Even the experts get it wrong. For example, a simple Internet search will find articles that appeared in MarketWatch, Reuters, and The Guardian from the United Kingdom predicting $2000 per ounce prices for gold. In March, the financial site The Motley Fool had an article saying that gold could hit $2000 per ounce next year.

In reality, gold opened the year at 1670.95, the high for 2013 and is 1309.64 as of Friday’s (October 25) close. Even with a small spike in August, the trend is going down. But does the trend mean that gold will still go down?

Kitco gold chart for 2013 through October 21, 2013

Kitco gold chart for 2013 through October 21, 2013

Trying to read the financial tea leaves has long been a sport for the financial pundits. One pundit writing for Forbes noted that the dollar strengthened while gold and crude oil dropped while last week, another pundit from Bloomberg wrote that stocks and gold rose as the dollar falls on the reaction earnings that have been topping estimates and the prediction of slower economic growth predicted by the Federal Reserve saying it will maintain its stimulus program. In between, an analyst at Yahoo Finance was predicting “a major turnaround in the US Dollar versus the Euro, but gold prices may actually outperform versus the Greenback.”

Predicting the price of gold and rare coins can be a similar test of ones nerves. One interesting way to look at the market is to see what the PCGS3000 Index says. The PCGS3000 index uses a sampling of collector coins, type coins, varieties, and differing grades to create a market index. Their sample are considered classic coins (1792-1964) including gold and early commemoratives to total 3000 coins.

This recent history of collector coins shows an upward trend over the last year as the economy has improved (see graph below on the left). However, looking over the last 10 years (graph below on the right) the peak occurred before the economy turned sour at the end of 2008 and has largely remained flat since falling to a low in 2010.

Does this mean gold and rare coins are not a good investment? If you bough during the run up in value in 2008, you are behind. However, coins purchased from the beginning of the ten-year chart should yield a better return for investors.

Those thinking that gold coins may be a better investment might want to consider that the price of their coins will be tied to the price of gold. Both the PCGS Generic Gold Coin Index (below on the left) and the PCGS Mint State Rare Gold Coin Index (below on the right) almost mirrors the gold market over the last year. In fact, looking at the 10 year history the Mint State Rare Gold Coin Index almost mirrors the PCGS3000 Index while the Generic Gold Coin Index is all over the place and does not even follow the price of gold for the last 10 years.

While you are thinking that this may be particular to gold coins, investors in 20th Century Coins (see chart below on the left) and Morgan and Peace Dollars (below, right) may be scratching their heads looking for a better return.

As a layman, what appears to be a hot market is the very high end market. These are the extremely rare coins, coins with extraordinary pedigrees, and unique collectibles. Not every collector or investor is going to be able to own a 1794 Flowing Hair dollar that sold for $10 million last January, the George Walton 1913 Liberty Head Nickel, or a 1880 Coiled Hair Stella which is really a pattern that sold for $2.5 million in September. Even rare copper coins are selling at a premium.

1857 Seated Liberty half dime

1857 Seated Liberty half dime

The mantra of investing is to buy low and sell high. The problem is knowing what to buy. By the time someone figures out what is the best investment, the prices are going up and the investor value is lost. Along with knowing the coins and their value, timing is everything. For example, is now the time to look at what are sometimes called exotic U.S. coins? Exotic coins are those produced before the 1870s like the Bust and Liberty Seated coins, Trade dollar, and even the rare two- and three-cent coins. Many of these coins are overlooked by a lot of people, including collectors, sometimes because of cost other times because they are not as readily available.

Predicting the coin market is more difficult than stocks and commodities. With the capital markets there is company performance data, yield of crops, world conditions, and a lot of measurable factors that the professionals use. None of that exists in the coin investing market. Prices can be predicted by rarity to a certain degree, much of the pricing appears to be based on emotion: what will you pay for the coin. For instance, if the 1794 Flowing Hair dollar sold for $10 million what would the only legal-to-own 1933 Saint Gaudens Double Eagle sell for today? It used to hold the record for the most ever paid for a single coin when it sold at auction for $7,590,020 (including buyers premium and the $20 that was required to monetize the coin) in 2002.

In case you were interested, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Inflation Calculator, adjusted for inflation, the price paid for the 1933 Double Eagle in 2002 is $9,867,321.33 in 2013 dollars. Even adjusted for inflation, the price does not beat the 1794 dollar!

If you are interested in trying to test this market, I wish you well. I am a coin collector not an investor. I do not think that will change. However, if you are looking for an interesting investment market, I hear the market for classic cars, including the muscle cars of the 1960s and 1970s are an affordable and growing market. And if you do not want to enter that market for investment, at least you can consider an emotional purchase—like I did!

This 1974 Plymouth Gold Duster with a 225 Slant 6 is a memory that is on a truck on its way to is new home in my garage!

This 1974 Plymouth Gold Duster with a 225 Slant 6 is a memory that is on a truck on its way to is new home in my garage!

Gold charts are courtesy of Kitco
The coin market charts are all from PCGS and their PCGS3000® index.
Half Dime image from Wikipedia.

A look inside the U.S. Mint at West Point

US Mint at West PointThis year, the U.S. Mint Facility at West Point, New York turn 75 years old. When opened in 1937, it was to be the nation’s silver bullion depository giving it the nickname “The Fort Knox of Silver.” In 1988, West Point was granted mint status.

The “W” mintmark on U.S. coins is highly prized since it is the only mint not to strike circulating coins with its own mintmark. While the West Point Mint did strike cents from 1973 through 1986, the coins produced were not struck with a mintmark.

Today, the West Point Mint only strikes precious metal coins. From commemoratives through bullion American Eagle coins, West Point produces more precious metal coins than any other Mint in the world, including the San Francisco Mint.

Located just outside the United States Military Academy, the West Point Mint does not allow visitors or tours for security reasons. However, exceptions are made. With the facility celebrating its 75th anniversary, the U.S. Mint has been allowing journalists to visit and take pictures of their operations.

Thus far, the best set of images were published in the Daily News. In the article, “West Point Mint, with $80 billion in precious metals, celebrates 75th anniversary,” the reporters visit the West Point Mint and bring back some very interesting picture. You can read the story on the Daily News’s website or if you just want to see the pictures, you can see this board I created on Pinterest.

The Daily News also created a two-minute video looking inside the facility. The video follows (if it begins with a commercial, it is being sent by the Daily News—the cost of embedding their video):

If you are having problems seeing the video, go here.

All images and the video courtesy of the Daily News.

Cafe au Lait and Beignets

After a late arrival in New Orleans, I walked the block over to the convention center to enter the bourse floor. Hall G of the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center is a big convention center hall that does not feel “full.” Sure, the National Money Show is a smaller show than others including the World’s Fair of Money, but it does allow for a different group of people to come in and learn more about numismatics.

Since my trip to the show is largely to campaign for the Board of Governors elections, I started to meet and talk with members around the floor. I had taken the opportunity talk with a few people I know and introduce myself to others.

But that does not mean I did not do some looking around.

The biggest news I learned is that the U.S. Mint is planning on issuing a reverse proof American Gold Buffalo later this year in honor of the design’s 100th anniversary. A sample can be seen at the U.S. Mint booth at the show and, of course on Pinterest. The image was taken through the glass of the case it is being display within. On Friday, I will try to take a picture of the coin with the case open.

On seeing the reverse proof American Buffalo coin I was stunned as to how beautiful it is. It has an elegance that you cannot see in a picture. The coin will be released later this year. It will give us time to put some money aside to buy at least one version. If you buy no other gold coin this year, you should save to buy this one. I guarantee that you will not be disappointed.

Although the sales of the 2013 American Eagle West Point Two-Coin Silver Set went on sale today, the U.S. Mint only had a sample at the show. All sales are being made on line or via the telephone. You can see an image on Pinterest. I will try to take a better picture when I do one of the American Buffalo gold reverse proof since both are in the same display case.

Aside from buying a new loupe because I left mine at home, I just found a few New York-related tokens including a New York City subway token where the cutout “Y” is off-center.

One of the great things about coming to an ANA show is to see people, meet new people, and just have a great time. Some of us went to the French Quarter for dinner. After dinner, we walked a few blocks to the French Market for café au lait and beignets at Café du Monde. Thus, the tradition I started as a college student in 1980 continues—every trip I have ever made to New Orleans included a visit to Café du Monde.

Friday will be some Money Talks sessions and end with a reception for Congressman Steve Scalise (R-LA). Scalise is one of the sponsors for the newly introduced H.R. 1849, the bill to update the Hobby Protection Act. The same bill that did not get a hearing during the last session.

Keep a watch on Twitter and Pinterest for reports from the show.

POLL: Will you buy this year’s commemoratives?

2013 Girl Scouts Commemorative Dollar

2013 Girl Scouts Commemorative Dollar

Now that we are in our third month of 2013, the U.S. Mint has begun to sell the 2013 Girl Scouts of the USA Centennial Silver Dollar. The 38mm 90-percent silver coins includes a $10 surcharge that will “be paid to the Girl Scouts of the United States of America to be made available for Girl Scout program development and delivery.” With a mintage limit of 350,000, the Girl Scouts will receive $3.5 million from the program. That’s a lot of http://www.girlscouts.org/program/gs_cookies/!

2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative Coins

2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative Coins

On March 21, the U.S. Mint is scheduled to start selling the 2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative Coins. The program commemorates the United States Army Command and General Staff College (CGSC) by commemorating the 5-star generals who attended or taught at the college. The generals that will be depicted on the coins are Douglas MacArthur, George C. Marshall, Henry “Hap” Arnold, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Omar N. Bradley. General Bradley was the last to hold the rank General of the Army.

The 5-Star Generals Commemorative Program includes a $5 gold coin, silver dollar, and clad half-dollar that will be offered in proof and uncirculated options. The U.S. Mint will also offer a three-coin proof set. Surcharges of $35 for each gold coin, $10 for each silver coin and $5 for each clad coin sold will to go the CGSC Foundation to support the college. With mintage limits of the 100,000 for the gold coin, 500,000 silver dollars, and 750,000 clad half-dollars, the program can raise a maximum of $16 million for the CGSC Foundation.

Do you plan to buy any of these commemorative coins? This week’s poll asks which, if any, of these commemoratives you will buy.

Do you plan to buy any of the 2013 commemorative coins?

I don't plan to buy any of these commemorative coins (38%, 13 Votes)
2013 Girl Scouts of the USA Centennial Proof Silver Dollar (12%, 4 Votes)
2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative $5 Proof Gold Coin (9%, 3 Votes)
2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative Proof Silver Dollar (9%, 3 Votes)
2013 Girl Scouts of the USA Centennial Commemorative Silver Dollar (6%, 2 Votes)
2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative $5 Commemorative Gold Coin (6%, 2 Votes)
2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative Uncirculated Silver Dollar (6%, 2 Votes)
2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative Proof Clad Half-Dollar (6%, 2 Votes)
2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative Uncirculated Clad Half-Dollar (6%, 2 Votes)
2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative Three-Coin Proof Set (3%, 1 Votes)

Total Voters: 22

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Coin images courtesy of the U.S. Mint.

PCGS Declares 1964-D Peace #1

Now that it is award season, Professional Coin Grading Service is getting into the act by release its first annual listing of the “PCGS Top 100 Modern United States Coins.” PCGS is using the rising popularity of modern coins, those minted since the change to base metals in 1965, to bring this list to the public. PCGS announced the list on January 11, 2013, during a luncheon at the Florida United Numismatics Convention in Orlando, Florida.

PCGS is offering a $10,000 reward to verify a genuine 1964-D Peace dollar, the number one coin on the new PCGS Top 100 Modern U.S. Coins list.  This image is a PCGS artist's conception of a 1964-D Peace dollar.

PCGS is offering a $10,000 reward to verify a genuine 1964-D Peace dollar, the number one coin on the new PCGS Top 100 Modern U.S. Coins list. This image is a PCGS artist’s conception of a 1964-D Peace dollar.

Topping the list is the 1964-D Peace dollar, a coin that was struck but never put into circulation and allegedly destroyed.

“Mint records indicate that 316,076 1964-dated silver Peace dollars were struck at the Denver Mint in May 1965,” said Don Willis , President of PCGS, “but they were all were supposed to be destroyed.”

PCGS believes that not every 1964-D Peace dollar was destroyed and has offered a $10,000 reward “just to view in person and verify a genuine 1964-D Peace dollar.”

In 1964 the price of silver rose to new heights that it made the value of ordinary circulating coins worth more for their metals than their face value. Because of this, silver coins were being hoarded by the public and becoming scarce in circulation. Western states that relied on hard currency including the gaming areas of Nevada needed the U.S. Mint to strike additional coins for circulation.

The striking of a dollar coin had a powerful ally: Senator Majority Leader Mike Mansfield, Democrat from Montana, whose state would be directly affected by the new coins. Although the numismatic press was not in favor of the measure because of its limited ability to solve the coin shortage, Mansfield pushed a bill through congress to authorize the Mint to strike 45 million silver dollars.

After much discussion, the Mint looked for working dies but found that few survived a 1937 destruction order. Those that did survive were in poor condition. Mint Assistant Engraver Frank Gasparro, who would later become the Mint’s 10th Chief Engraver, was authorized to create new dies of the Peace dollar with the “D” mintmark. Since the coins would mostly circulate in the west it was logical to strike them closest to the area of interest.

Treasury Secretary C. Douglas Dillon was opposed to the the coin and wrote a letter to President Lyndon B. Johnson saying that the coins would not be likely to circulate and be hoarded. After Dillon resigned, Mansfield questioned the new Secretary, Henry H. Fowler, who assured Mansfield that the coins would be struck.

Although Mint Director Eva Adams, who was from Nevada, also objected to striking the coin, the Denver Mint began trial strikes of the Peace dollar on May 12, 1965.

When the coins were announced three days later, coin dealers immediately offered $7.50 per coin which would ensure that they would not circulate as intended. Everyone saw this as a poor use of Mint resources during a time of sever coin shortages. Adams announced that the pieces were trial strikes never intended for circulation and were later melted under reportedly heavy security.

To prevent this from happening again, Congress added a provision in the Coinage Act of 1965 (Public Law No. 89-81; 79 Stat. 254) that put a moratorium on striking silver dollars for five years.

There have been reports that some Peace dollars were struck using base metals (copper-nickel clad) as experimental pieces in 1970 in anticipation of the approval of the Eisenhower dollar. The same reports also presume these coins have been destroyed.

“It sometimes takes years for famous coins to surface,” said Hall. “Until 1920, no one knew there actually were 1913 Liberty Head nickels in existence. Until 1962, no one knew the 1804 Draped Bust silver dollar and the other coins in the special presentation set given by the United States to the King of Siam in 1836 were still in existence.”

“When we offered a $10,000 reward in 2003 to be the first to see and authenticate the long-missing Walton specimen 1913 Liberty Head nickel it resulted in the re-discovery of that coin after a 41-year absence from the hobby,” Hall continued. “Perhaps this new reward offer will help solve the mystery of whether any 1964-D Peace dollars survived the melting pots. It’s the number one modern U.S. coin.”

For collectors of silver crown-sized coins and large U.S. dollars, the 1964-D Peace dollar is the ultimate fantasy coin. As someone who collects silver coins including modern bullion issues, it should come as no surprise that I chose the 1964-D Peace dollar for this blog’s logo. My version was made using Photoshop and colored to not look “real” to avoid potential issues from our law enforcement friends at the Department of the Treasury.

It would be difficult to put a price if a version of the coin is found. It would certainly be a unique coin whose auction would start well out of my price range—maybe set a record for being the highest price paid for a single coin, topping the 1933 Farouk-Fenton Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle that sold for $7,590,020 in 2002.

As part of the announcement, PCGS announced the top five in the PCGS Top 100 Modern U.S. Coins as follows:

  1. 1964-D Peace Dollar: The most controversial and one of the most famous of all modern issues.
  2. 1975 proof no “S” mintmark Roosevelt dime: Only two known, and one recently sold at auction for $350,000.
  3. 1974 aluminum Lincoln cent: 1,570,000 were minted but only one is known and is graded PCGS MS62.
  4. 1976 proof no “S” mintmark Bicentennial Type 2 Eisenhower dollar: only one example is known.
  5. 2000-W proof Sacagawea dollar struck in 22 carat gold: 12 are known

1964-D Peace dollar image courtesy of PCGS.

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